This is the version with data through games of Oct. 24, 2026. Figures that include the current season have changed since. Read the current version
Research
The AP Poll's Worst Three-Year Stretch in 40 Years, and What It Means for the CFP
The College Football Playoff committee releases its first rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and its top 12 usually looks a lot like the AP's. In regular-season games between two ranked teams, the AP's higher-ranked team used to win nearly two times in three. Since 2024, it has been closer to the odds of a coin flip.
The short version
- Since 2014, the playoff committee's first top 12 of each season has included 134 of the 144 teams in the AP top 12 released two days earlier (93%). By Selection Sunday, its final top 12 has included 139 of 144 (97%).
- The AP poll is in its worst three-year stretch in 40 years. Since 2024, its higher-ranked team has won 51% of regular-season games between two ranked teams (58 of 114). In the 40 seasons before that, it won 63% (1,072 of 1,702).
- For 35 straight seasons, the AP's higher-ranked team won most of these games. This season it has won just 11 of 24 (46%) so far. Last season was also at 46% at this point, and it finished at 51%.
- In the 12-team playoff, the committee's higher-ranked team has won 11 of 22 games (50%). The AP's has won 12 of 22 (55%).
- Oddsmakers did better. Since 2024, the oddsmakers' pick (the team favored when betting lines open each week) has won 67% of regular-season games between two ranked teams (76 of 114) and 18 of 22 playoff games (82%).
Regular-season figures include conference title games. Playoff games count only in the playoff figures, and other bowl games are not counted.
For reporters: Methodology · Data requests · How to cite · Key figures · Data checks
The committee's rankings look a lot like the AP's
The College Football Playoff selection committee ranks the teams that fill the 12-team field, along with five automatic spots for conference champions. A year ago, as the committee released its first rankings, then-chair Mack Rhoades told reporters, "Preseason polls do not matter to us. No other organizations' polls matter to us."
The committee's first top 12 still looks a lot like the AP's. Since 2014, it has included 134 of the 144 teams in the AP top 12 released two days earlier (93%). In most seasons, the two lists shared 11 of 12 teams.
That does not show the committee follows the AP. Rankings built on the same results tend to agree, and the Coaches poll's top 12 overlapped with the committee's first top 12 almost as much (133 of 144). Most of the AP's drop also came before the committee's rankings start. In games after each season's first committee ranking, the AP's higher-ranked team has won 63% since 2024 (19 of 30), close to its 65% before (128 of 197), though that is too few recent games to tell.
The AP poll is in its worst stretch in 40 years
The Associated Press has ranked college football teams since 1936. When two ranked teams play each other, the team ranked higher usually wins.
AP urges its voters "to base their votes on performance, not reputation or preseason speculation." Its guidance does not mention predicting games. So we measure one result of the rankings, not whether voters did what the AP asks.
Over the 40 seasons from 1984 through 2023, the higher-ranked team won 63% of these matchups (1,072 of 1,702). Since 2024 it has won 51% (58 of 114), its weakest three-season stretch in 40 years. The last stretch as low or lower was 1984-86 (49.5%), when the poll ranked 20 teams. Counting only games between two top-20 teams gives the same answer. From 1989, when the poll went to 25 teams, through 2023, the rate was 64% (983 of 1,547). It is not one fluke year: all three seasons fell below the old average.
The 2024-26 figure includes this season's first 24 games. Through 2025, the lowest stretch since 1984-86 was 1993-95, at 56%. For 2024-26 to finish above that, the higher-ranked team would need to win roughly 85% to 90% of this season's remaining matchups. It has not done that over any full season since 1989. With 114 games, the 51% has a margin of error of about 9 points. If nothing had changed, a gap this large would show up by chance somewhere between 1 time in 100 and 1 time in 12.
So far, this season has been even lower
From 1991 through 2025, the higher-ranked team won most of these games every season. This season is not over, but through Oct. 24 it has won 11 of 24 (46%). Last season was also at 46% at this point, and it finished at 51%. On Sept. 26, No. 21 Florida beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28. A week later Florida was No. 8, and it lost 45-17 at No. 25 Missouri.
Since 1991, the higher-ranked team has won most games between ranked teams every season. This season, through Oct. 24, it has won 46% (11 of 24).
Share of regular-season games between two AP Top 25 teams won by the higher-ranked team, by season, 1991-2026. 2026 through Oct. 24. The last season below 50% was 1990 (44%, 16 of 36).
By Selection Sunday, the two lists nearly match
By the end of the season the overlap is even larger. The committee's final ranking, released on Selection Sunday, picks the at-large teams and sets the seeds. Since 2014, its top 12 has included 139 of the 144 teams in the AP top 12 released the same day (97%). In more than 70 committee rankings since 2014, its top 12 has shared about 11 teams with that week's AP top 12.
The five teams in the committee's final top 12 but not the AP's were all near the cutoff. Four were the committee's No. 12. The fifth was Penn State in 2019, No. 10 for the committee and No. 13 in the AP poll. By then, AP voters and the committee have seen each other's rankings for weeks, so this overlap says even less about who follows whom.
In the playoff, the committee's picks won half the time
The 12-team playoff began in 2024. In its 22 games so far, the team the committee ranked higher won 11. The AP's higher-ranked team won 12. The committee's No. 1 teams show the range. In 2024, Oregon lost its first playoff game, 41-21 to No. 6 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, and Ohio State went on to win the title. In 2025, Indiana won the title, beating No. 10 Miami 27-21.
The committee and the AP picked the same team in 21 of the 22 games. They split only on the 2024 Orange Bowl semifinal, where the AP's pick, Notre Dame, beat Penn State. Like a poll, the committee ranks teams mostly on what they have done. Twenty-two games are too few to say one ranking is better than another.
Oddsmakers saw many of these upsets coming
Sportsbooks post opening lines each week, typically on Sunday, the day the AP poll comes out. Since 2024, the oddsmakers' pick (the team favored when betting lines open each week) has won 67% of these games (76 of 114). The AP's pick, its higher-ranked team, has won 51% (58 of 114). In the playoff, the oddsmakers' pick won 18 of 22 games (82%). So far this season, the oddsmakers and the AP picked different teams 9 times. The oddsmakers were right in 8 of them, and in 8 of the 9 they picked the home team.
The oddsmakers' pick beat the AP's pick in each of the three seasons. It won 65% to the AP's 53% in 2024, 64% to 51% in 2025 and 75% to 46% so far in 2026. It is not a like-for-like test. A line is built to predict one game, including where it is played. A poll ranks teams.
Did upsets rise across the board?
No. Ranked teams still beat unranked teams as often as before. They won 82% of those games in 2014-23 (1,749 of 2,134) and 84% since 2024 (487 of 582). And the AP is not alone. In games before each season's first committee ranking, the Coaches poll and the r/CFB fan poll fell by similar amounts.
Is it where the games were played?
Only partly. Since 2024, the higher-ranked team has played more of these games on the road, 54% (61 of 114), up from 44% (221 of 506) in 2013-23. Road games are harder to win. Suppose it had kept its 2013-23 win rates at home, on the road and at neutral sites. The move to more road games alone would have lowered its share to about 61%. It won 51%, so where games were played explains about 3 points of its 13-point drop from 2013-23. It also won less often both at home (79% to 62%) and on the road (49% to 39%).
What else changed since 2024?
Several changes took effect over the same period. In April 2024, the NCAA lifted its limit on penalty-free transfers, making athletes who meet academic requirements immediately eligible at their next school. From the 2023 season to this one, incoming transfers per FBS team doubled, from 10.7 to 22.4. Most of that rise came by 2025, at 21.4. That is our count of CollegeFootballData.com's transfer portal records. The rise began before the rule change: it was 6.3 in 2021. More portal records now list a destination school (78% this season, 64% in 2023), so part of the increase reflects fuller records. The 2024 season also brought the 12-team playoff and the expanded SEC and Big Ten. Revenue sharing and roster limits took effect in July 2025 under the House settlement. On Sept. 28, 2026, the Senate passed the Protect College Sports Act (S. 4668), 77-22. The bill would again limit transfers, and the House has not voted on it. We did not test whether any of these explains the drop.
Methodology
We counted every regular-season game between two teams in the AP poll, including conference title games. The count runs from the poll's first season in 1936 through Oct. 24, 2026. That is 2,787 games, 1,661 of them since the poll went to 25 teams in 1989. Rankings come from the College Poll Archive through 2012 and ESPN since 2013. Results come from James Howell's scores archive and ESPN. Every winner and score matches a second database, CollegeFootballData.com. Second copies of the AP polls give the same season totals for every season except 2005. They are CollegeFootballData.com's for 1936-1988, Wikipedia's tables for 1989-2004, ESPN's for 2005-12 and the College Poll Archive's since 2013. The 22 games of the 12-team playoff, 2024 and 2025 seasons, are counted on their own, and committee rankings are compared with the AP poll from 2014 on.
Data requests
The full game-by-game dataset (1936-2026) is available on request. Email press@rankcfb.com.
Each chart has save buttons beneath it. The dataset's game file has scores, game sites and AP ranks, but no betting lines; opening lines are in separate files. Coaches and fan-poll ranks are not included.
How to cite
Cite the update date, since 2026 figures change weekly. Free to cite with credit to RankCFB and a link to this page. Charts may be republished with the same credit.
Data checks
- Through 1967, except in 1965, the AP's final poll came out before the bowls. It counts as the poll in force for games played after its release, which covers six games in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s.
- Every 2013-2026 game figure was recounted from the raw game, poll, fan-poll and betting-line files with separately written code before publication. A second, separately written check reproduced the counts.
- Every game result in this report matches CollegeFootballData.com's game records: the same winner and the same final score in all 2,787 games since 1936. We also checked the other way, with the same polls. Its records hold no game between two ranked teams that this count leaves out. The only exceptions are tied games and games between teams tied in the poll, which the method excludes. Like ours, its records are incomplete for some World War II service teams.
- For 1989-2004, each of the 255 weekly AP polls used here was checked against a second copy of the polls, Wikipedia's season ranking tables. Of 6,379 poll entries, 16 differed, mostly in the order of tied teams, and none changed a season total.
- CollegeFootballData.com also keeps its own copy of the weekly AP polls. For 1936-1988, its polls agree with ours on all 11,260 poll entries, apart from the spelling of a few team names. So every season total is the same. From 1989 on, we recounted using its games and polls in place of ours. That gives the same season totals for 1989, 1991 and 2002 and for every season from 2006 on. The 1990 season also matches once a one-week labeling offset in its 1990 polls is corrected. For 1992-2005 its older weekly polls have gaps, and its totals differ by one to three games a season. No season moves to the other side of 50%. It also has 2024-26 as the lowest three-season stretch since 1989.
- The 1936-2012 build (College Poll Archive polls and Howell's scores; ESPN for 2005-12) reproduces this report's 2014, 2019 and 2024 counts exactly. For 2001-04 it was also compared with ESPN's records; two ESPN poll files, for 2001 and 2003, contained errors, and the archive's polls were used.
- Game sites before 2013 come from Howell's database. For the 596 games from 2013 to 2025, its home, road and neutral labels match ESPN's in 583 (98%). Most differences are conference title games played on a campus.
- From 1989 to 1995, 11 games between two ranked teams ended in ties. Counting them as games the higher-ranked team did not win would not move any season to the other side of 50%.
- The oddsmakers' pick, or opening betting favorite, comes from the opening lines sportsbooks post at the start of game week, usually on Sunday. They are mainly from U.S.-licensed books (DraftKings, FanDuel, Circa), with six 2024 openers from Bovada, an offshore book, via CollegeFootballData.com. A separate database, CollegeFootballData.com's record of Bovada's opening lines, names the same favorite in 107 of the 108 games since 2024 where it is not our own source. Using its favorite in all 114 games gives 66% (75 of 114) rather than 67% (76 of 114). ESPN's stored "opening" line was not used, because for some games it was a look-ahead number posted months earlier. Eight of the 114 lines come from published tables that do not name the book.
- The committee overlap counts come from CollegeFootballData.com's committee rankings and AP polls. ESPN's records give the same count for every season's first and final ranking that both hold.
- An audit of the 2005-12 ESPN files found three 2012 conference title games listed twice and one 2005 game involving an unranked team. They are removed: 2005 counts 43 games and 2012 counts 46.
Full methodology
Games. We count every regular-season game between two teams in the AP Top 25 at kickoff, including conference title games, at any site. This covers 1989 through games of Oct. 24, 2026 (1,661 games). The headline comparison uses the 40 seasons from 1984 through 2023, when the higher-ranked team won 1,072 of 1,702 (63%). The AP ranked 20 teams from 1968 through 1988. The 25-team era, 1989-2023, gives 64% (983 of 1,547). Season totals back to 1936 count games between two teams in that season's AP poll. Before 1989 the poll ranked 20 teams in most seasons and 10 in 1961-67. Bowl and playoff games are excluded. The Covid-shortened 2020 season is included; its conference title games, played Dec. 18-19, count as regular-season games. Tied games, possible before 1996, are excluded.
Ranks. A team's rank is its rank in the AP poll in force on game day. That is the most recent poll released before the game, or the preseason poll for early games. The higher-ranked team is the one with the better number; games between teams tied in the poll are not counted. Coaches poll ranks come from ESPN and fan-poll ranks from the r/CFB poll archive. Unranked opponents include FCS teams.
Sources by period. 2013-2026: ESPN scoreboard and AP poll records. 2005-12: ESPN game records with weekly AP polls from the College Poll Archive. 1936-2004: weekly AP polls from the College Poll Archive matched to results from James Howell's historical scores database. All periods are counted game by game, and the game file lists every game. Game sites (home, road or neutral) come from ESPN for 2013-2026 and from Howell's database before 2013. Comparisons with 2014-23 use that period because the committee, Coaches poll, fan-poll and full-schedule files begin in 2014.
Betting lines. Every betting figure uses the opening line; kickoff and closing lines are not used. The oddsmakers' pick, or opening betting favorite, is the favorite in the opening line that sportsbooks post at the start of game week, usually on Sunday. The books are mainly U.S.-licensed (DraftKings, FanDuel and Circa Sports), plus Bovada, an offshore book, for six 2024 games. Most 2024-25 openers (83 of 90) come from SportsBettingDime's published opening-line tables. One, the Iowa State-Kansas State game in Dublin, comes from VSiN. None of these opening lines was a pick'em. In 2024, FanDuel supplied 20 of the 43 openers, and 7 came from tables listing FanDuel and ESPN Bet without saying which. Bovada supplied 6 (conference title games and Notre Dame-Navy) and DraftKings 3, and 7 came from tables that name no book. In 2025, DraftKings supplied 46 of 47. The Dublin game comes from a published opener that names no book. In 2026, DraftKings supplied 23 of 24, and Circa Sports supplied Ohio State at Texas. For the six Bovada games, the opener comes from CollegeFootballData.com's record of Bovada's lines, and a second source confirms the favorite in each. In two of them, the ACC and Big 12 title games, BetMGM's first number came out hours earlier and favored the other team. The wider market opened soon after with SMU and Arizona State favored, and we use that line. Six Week 1 games had no game-week opener because their lines were posted months earlier; every source agrees on the favorite in those games. For every other game, Bovada's opening lines in CollegeFootballData.com's data are the cross-check. Per-game sources are listed in the dataset, available on request.
Committee. The committee released 72 rankings from 2014 through 2025. The average of 11.4 shared teams compares 71 of them, from ESPN's records, with the AP poll released the same week. The 2020 final ranking is left out of that average because ESPN's records do not include the AP's Dec. 20, 2020 poll. Adding it, with the College Poll Archive's copy of that poll, leaves the average at 11.4. CollegeFootballData.com's regular-season records hold 70 of the 72 rankings and also give 11.4. They are missing Nov. 26, 2019, and the Dec. 20, 2020 final, which it files with its postseason rankings. The first-ranking and Selection Sunday counts use each season's first and final committee ranking and the AP poll of the same week from CollegeFootballData.com. The AP poll comes out on Sunday and the first committee ranking on Tuesday, so the AP poll is two days older; the final ranking and the AP poll come out the same day. For the 2020 final, we use ESPN's committee ranking and the College Poll Archive's AP poll. The Coaches poll comparison uses CollegeFootballData.com's Coaches poll for the week of each first ranking. "Before the committee's first ranking" means games played before that season's first ranking, 2014-26.
Playoff. The playoff figures count all 22 games of the 12-team playoff, the 2024 and 2025 seasons, from CollegeFootballData.com's game records. Each team's rank is its place in each list's last ranking before the playoff: the committee's final ranking and the AP poll released the same day. These are rankings, not playoff seeds. The oddsmakers' pick is the favorite in Bovada's opening line, from CollegeFootballData.com's records, the only book with an opening line for all 22 games. ESPN Bet's opening line, where recorded, names the same favorite. CollegeFootballData.com does not record when Bovada posted these lines. Most regular-season openers come from other books, mainly DraftKings and FanDuel, so the two figures do not use the same book. In four games, each opening with a favorite of 2 points or less, the other team was favored by kickoff. We count the opening favorite, which won three of those four.
Transfers. Incoming transfers per FBS team count every CollegeFootballData.com transfer portal record for a season whose destination is an FBS school that season. A season's records cover the offseason before it, so 2024 covers December 2023 to May 2024. The count is divided by the number of FBS teams. That gives 6.3 in 2021 (816 transfers, 130 teams) and 10.7 in 2023 (1,418 transfers, 133 teams). It gives 15.4 in 2024 (2,066 transfers, 134 teams) and 22.4 in 2026 (3,092 transfers, 138 teams). Records without a destination are not counted.
Earlier research. Fair and Oster (2007) found that the closing Las Vegas point spread already held all the useful information in college football computer ranking systems. We did not find an earlier published measurement of this win rate across the AP poll's history, in searches through October 2026.
Tests. Two-sided Fisher's exact tests, which assume games are independent. Games share teams and weeks, so these p-values are likely too small. We also treated whole seasons as the unit. Only 0.3% of the ways to pick 3 of the 38 seasons since 1989 produce a gap as large as 2024-26's (one-sided). Checks that resample teams, comparing 2013-23 with 2024-26, give p-values of about 0.01 to 0.08. Margins of error are 95% Wilson intervals, which also treat games as independent. The first-ranking cutoff was chosen after reviewing the data, and p-values are not adjusted for the number of comparisons. How the figures were verified is described under Data checks.
Limitations
- Why the change happened. It does not test transfers, NIL, conference realignment or the playoff format.
- Whether any voter ranked teams incorrectly. It measures outcomes of the combined poll, not individual voters' rankings.
- The committee's accuracy over a season. Outside the playoff, committee rankings are compared with the AP poll only for overlap, and the 22 playoff games are too few to rank one list above another.
- Exact certainty. The standard tests treat games as independent. Allowing for teams that appear in many games, the comparison with 2013-23 gives p-values of about 0.01 to 0.08.
- Whether the drop is only an early-season effect. Most of it came in games played before each season's first committee ranking. The higher-ranked team won 64% of those in 2014-23 (168 of 262) and 46% since 2024 (39 of 84). After the first ranking, it was 65% (128 of 197) and then 63% (19 of 30), too few recent games to tell.
- Whether betting lines were well calibrated. It counts straight-up winners, not results against the spread.
- A full 2026 season. This season's figures run through games of Oct. 24 and will change.
2026 scorecard: all Top 25 matchups through Oct. 24
| Date | Matchup (AP rank at kickoff) and final | Higher-ranked team won | Oddsmakers' pick |
|---|
* The oddsmakers picked the team the AP ranked lower. The oddsmakers' pick is the favorite in the Sunday opening line published during game week: DraftKings for 23 games and Circa Sports for Ohio State at Texas. Bovada's opening line in CollegeFootballData.com's data names the same favorite in all 24 games.
Key figures
Each figure carries its count and time window. The copy button adds the source and data date.
- In regular-season games between two AP Top 25 teams, the higher-ranked team won 51% from 2024 through Oct. 24, 2026 (58 of 114). That is the lowest for any three-season stretch in 40 years. Over the 40 seasons before, 1984-2023, it won 63% (1,072 of 1,702). The last stretch as low or lower was 1984-86 (49.5%, 46 of 93), when the poll ranked 20 teams. Counting only games between two top-20 teams, 2024-26 is still the lowest since then. From 1989, when the poll went to 25 teams, through 2023, it won 64% (983 of 1,547). The next lowest three-season stretch in that time was 1993-95, at 56% (80 of 142).
- From 1991 through 2025, the higher-ranked team won a majority of regular-season games between two AP Top 25 teams every season. It won 63% overall (991 of 1,563). In 2026, through games of Oct. 24, it has won 46% (11 of 24).
- Since the AP poll began in 1936, the higher-ranked team has won less than half of regular-season games between two ranked teams in seven seasons. They are 1936, 1942, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1985 and 1990. If 2026 finishes below 50%, it would be the first such season since 1990.
- Ranked college football teams beat unranked opponents 82% of the time in 2014-23 (1,749 of 2,134) and 84% since 2024 (487 of 582).
- Since 2024, the higher-ranked team has won 62% of games between two AP Top 25 teams at home (23 of 37) and 39% on the road (24 of 61). That is down from 79% (164 of 208) and 49% (108 of 221) in 2013-23. It has also played on the road more often: 54% of these games since 2024, up from 44% in 2013-23. Holding its 2013-23 win rates at each type of site, that shift accounts for about 3 points of its 13-point drop.
- In games between two AP Top 25 teams, the oddsmakers' pick (the team favored when betting lines open each week) won 67% from 2024 through Oct. 24, 2026 (76 of 114). That includes 18 of 24 so far in 2026. The AP's pick, its higher-ranked team, won 51% of the same games (58 of 114), and 11 of the 24 so far this season. Opening lines are the first lines sportsbooks post each game week, usually on Sunday, mainly at U.S.-licensed books; six 2024 openers are from Bovada, an offshore book. In the nine 2026 games where the oddsmakers picked the team the AP ranked lower, that team won eight.
- Across 71 College Football Playoff rankings from 2014 through 2025, the committee's top 12 shared an average of 11.4 teams with the AP top 12 released the same week. In each season's first ranking, the average was 11.2.
- Since 2014, each season's first College Football Playoff committee top 12 has included 134 of the 144 teams in the AP top 12 released two days earlier (93%). In the committee's final ranking each season, released on Selection Sunday, its top 12 included 139 of the 144 teams in the AP top 12 released the same day (97%).
- In the 22 games of the 12-team College Football Playoff, 2024 and 2025 seasons, the committee's higher-ranked team won 11 (50%) and the AP's higher-ranked team won 12 (55%). The oddsmakers' pick, the favorite in Bovada's opening line, won 18 (82%).
- "Preseason polls do not matter to us. No other organizations' polls matter to us," then-chair Mack Rhoades of the College Football Playoff selection committee said on the day of the committee's first rankings of 2025 (media conference, Nov. 4, 2025).
Data dictionary
This describes the dataset available on request.
| Column (game file) | Meaning |
|---|---|
| season | Season year |
| date | Game date, U.S. Eastern; before 2001, the local date as listed. The 1993 Wisconsin-Michigan State game in Tokyo carries its Tokyo date; one 1936 date is corrected (see note) |
| home_team, away_team | Teams, spelled as CollegeFootballData.com spells them; for neutral-site games, the team ESPN lists as home (CollegeFootballData.com before 2005) |
| neutral_site | yes if played at a neutral site |
| home_ap_rank, away_ap_rank | Rank in the AP poll in force on game day |
| home_score, away_score | Final score |
| higher_ranked_team | Team with the better AP rank |
| higher_ranked_won | yes if the team with the better AP rank won |
| ap_poll_size | Teams ranked in that season's AP poll (25, 20 or 10) |
| poll_date | Date of the AP poll in force, as the College Poll Archive dates it, or Preseason |
| rank_source, result_source, site_source | Where the ranks, the score and the home, road or neutral label come from |
In the game file, AP ranks come from the College Poll Archive through 2012 and from ESPN since 2013. Scores come from James Howell's scores database through 2004 and from ESPN since 2005. Game sites come from Howell's database through 2012 and from ESPN since 2013. From 1989 on, games Howell lists at a named site were reviewed by hand and 15 were corrected. Earlier site markers were not reviewed. Of the 143 games from 1936 to 1988 marked neutral, about half were played in a city where one of the teams often played home games. Examples are Alabama in Birmingham and Arkansas in Little Rock. Team names use CollegeFootballData.com's spellings, which are current names (Carnegie Mellon for Carnegie Tech, for example). Through 1967, except 1965, the AP's final poll came out before the bowls; it counts as the poll in force for games played after it. TCU's 9-0 win over Santa Clara in 1936 is dated Dec. 12, as newspapers reported it at the time. Howell's database and CollegeFootballData.com list Dec. 5.
Season totals file: season, higher_ranked_won, games, share, ap_poll_size (teams ranked that season), source. Home and road file: season, then the higher-ranked team's wins and games at home, on the road and at neutral sites, and the source of game sites. Scorecard file: date, both teams with AP ranks and scores, neutral_site, higher_ranked_team, higher_ranked_won, opening_favorite, favorite_won, line_source. Lines file: season, date, away_team, away_ap_rank, home_team, home_ap_rank, neutral_site, away_score, home_score, higher_ranked_team, higher_ranked_won, then opening_favorite, favorite_won, opening_spread (the favorite's opening line; blank for the six Bovada games, whose spreads come from CollegeFootballData.com and are not republished), book, source_date (when the opener was published, blank where the book's time is not recorded) and source_url. A note column flags Week 1 games whose lines were posted months earlier.
Sources
- Associated Press. "Discover the history of the Associated Press Top 25 college football poll," voting guidelines section, updated Aug. 7, 2025.
- Associated Press (1936-2026). AP Top 25 college football poll, weekly results.
- College Football Playoff. "CFP Selection Committee Protocol and Voting Process."
- College Football Playoff (2026). "CFP Selection Committee Prepares for 2026-27 Season," Aug. 6 (rankings schedule and 12-team format).
- Congress.gov. "S. 4668, Protect College Sports Act of 2026," actions and text as engrossed in the Senate, Sept. 28, 2026 (transfer rules in Sec. 112).
- CollegeFootballData.com (1936-2026). Game results and weekly AP polls, used to cross-check this report's data; Bovada opening lines, used for six 2024 games and to cross-check the rest; transfer portal records (2021-2026); and the team-name spellings used in the game file; pulled Oct. 26, 2026. College Football Playoff committee rankings, AP and Coaches polls (2014-2025), and playoff games and Bovada's playoff opening lines (2024-2025), pulled Oct. 27, 2026.
- DraftKings, FanDuel, Bovada and Circa Sports (2024-2026). Opening lines posted at the start of game week, usually on Sunday; per-game sources are listed in the dataset, available on request.
- SportsBettingDime (2024-2025). Weekly opening-line tables, the source of 83 of the 90 2024-25 openers. VSiN (2025), for the Dublin game's opener.
- College Poll Archive (1936-2026). "AP football polls by season."
- ESPN (2005-2026). College football scoreboard, AP and Coaches poll rankings, game odds and College Football Playoff rankings.
- Rhoades, Mack, College Football Playoff media conference (2025). "Transcript," ASAP Sports, Nov. 4.
- Fair, Ray C., and John F. Oster (2007). "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency." Journal of Sports Economics. Earlier version: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1381 (2002).
- Howell, James. "College football scores and records" (game results 1936-2004; game sites 1936-2012).
- In re College Athlete NIL Litigation, No. 4:20-cv-03919 (N.D. Cal.). Order granting final approval of the House settlement, June 6, 2025 (revenue sharing and roster limits effective July 1, 2025).
- NCAA (2024). "Division I Board of Directors ratifies transfer, NIL rule changes," April 22.
- r/CFB Poll (2014-2026). "Poll archive."
- U.S. Senate (2026). "Roll call vote 250, 119th Congress, 2nd session," on passage of S. 4668, Sept. 28.
- Wikipedia (1936-2026). Season ranking tables, e.g. "1994 NCAA Division I-A football rankings," used to cross-check the weekly AP polls for 1989-2004, and team season pages, used with those tables to hand-check 40 randomly drawn games.